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NFL MVP odds: The case for Josh Allen

With NFL groups reporting to coaching camp, the subsequent transfer on our finish is to search out the MVP futures price a wager earlier than the season begins. This shall be a sequence, with 4 to 5 candidates trying like stable bets, to me not less than.

On Wednesday, we began with Tom Brady, and now we flip our consideration to the betting favourite: Josh Allen.

Josh Allen’s 2022 MVP odds

As of this writing, Allen is the betting favourite on each DraftKings and FanDuel, +700 to convey dwelling the 2022 MVP award. 

Why Josh Allen is smart

It’s not going out on a limb to say that the favourite to win MVP is a sensible guess. Some might even say together with Allen in our preliminary appears to be like is boring. To that I say: He’s the favourite for a purpose.

As with any MVP future we make, there needs to be an underlying perception on two fronts: His group goes to achieve success, and the participant goes to pile up monster numbers.

On the primary entrance, Buffalo is the favourite to win the Super Bowl, presently sitting at +600 on the finish of July. The Bills have been to the playoffs three straight years, profitable the AFC East the previous two seasons. Their postseason run has ended by the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs in every of the final two years. In 2020, it was the AFC championship. In 2021, it was within the divisional spherical in an unimaginable sport that noticed the Bills protection permit the Chiefs to drive down the sphere with simply 13 seconds left to tie the sport on the finish of regulation.

The Bills are well-positioned to win the AFC East once more, and in the event that they earn the highest seed in a loaded AFC, it is going to very doubtless be due to Allen.

Allen’s statistical standing within the league

If the Bills do waltz into the playoffs with home-field benefit, that could be sufficient to crown Allen, however he’ll want rock-solid numbers to convey dwelling the {hardware}.

Allen’s passing numbers took a slight dip in 2021, however have been nonetheless spectacular. He completed with 4,407 passing yards for 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His 2020 numbers, for reference: 4,544 passing yards, 37 landing passes, 10 interceptions.

To me, it is the interceptions that want to return down. Aaron Rodgers gained the MVP final season largely as a consequence of his 37:4 TD:INT ratio. The much less Allen turns the ball over, the higher an opportunity I see him profitable MVP.

The one space the place Allen has differentiated himself on this league is as a runner. Allen completed 2021 with 763 speeding yards and 6 touchdowns. The impression he has together with his legs can’t be overstated: That has helped gamers win this award earlier than (see: Lamar Jackson), and the presence of this capability will truly be fueling a number of of my forthcoming picks.

Final phrase: I imagine within the Bills

There’s no denying Allen is among the greatest quarterbacks within the NFL, one of many leaders of this new era of passers we’re handled to as followers. Patrick Mahomes, Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Jackson determine to duke it out within the AFC for the foreseeable future.

I do imagine on this Bills group total. Their protection was stable for a lot of the 12 months, and the offense has weapons in key spots, specifically Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis at receiver. While Miami and New England must be high quality groups, I do not see Buffalo surrendering the AFC East crown anytime quickly.

The purpose I’m betting on Allen stems from my perception that the Bills can recover from the hump and into the Super Bowl. 

For this award, I like the worth on the NFC quarterbacks extra, just because the trail to a terrific report will meet a bit much less resistance. I’ve a sense the MVP winner will come from the AFC’s prime seed, a reward for being the most effective of the most effective.

The most assured group I see holding that mantle is Buffalo. Enter, Josh Allen.

Allen to win MVP: +700

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