Baltimore Ravens News

The statistical case for Ravens WR Rashod Bateman in 2022

Baltimore Ravens followers had excessive hopes for Rashod Bateman after the group chosen him with the twenty eighth total choose in the 2021 NFL Draft.

A standout prospect with bodily instruments just like Stefon Diggs who was named the Big Ten’s receiver of the yr as a sophomore, the group hoped that he may turn out to be the true top-tier outdoors receiver that Lamar Jackson has by no means had.

While Bateman confirmed flashes of greatness in his rookie yr, the bottom degree of manufacturing appeared to not match as much as the hype as he suffered by inconsistency and accidents.

While the fanbase and group nonetheless stay largely bullish on Bateman’s prospects in 2022, most arguments round Bateman focus on the truth that if you watch him he’s actually good.

However, a deeper take a look at his rookie numbers reveals that Bateman was each extra statistically worthwhile in 2021 than it appeared on the floor, and that he may very well be primed for a breakout sophomore marketing campaign.

Rashod Bateman’s fundamental stats

While Bateman’s 2021 base numbers of 46 catches for 515 yards and one landing seem underwhelming in a vacuum, it is very important perceive the context in which they had been posted.

It is a typical pattern in the NFL for rookie receivers to publish higher numbers in the second halves of their rookie years than the primary. Rarely do you see gamers like Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson who instantly set the league on fireplace.

It is extra frequent for gamers to expertise a ramp-up interval the place they get used to the physicality and play-style of the NFL earlier than breaking out in the second half of the yr.

With Bateman, this rang much more true due to the way in which his coaching camp obtained derailed. Bateman had by no means gotten reps with Lamar Jackson as a result of Jackson obtained COVID as quickly as coaching camp began, after which Bateman promptly injured his groin and missed the primary 5 video games.

This meant that upon returning Bateman needed to expertise a good larger ramp-up, as he needed to each be eased again in bodily and get used to enjoying along with his new quarterback for the primary time because the season was occurring.

Despite all of these obstacles, Bateman nonetheless put up comparable numbers over his first eight video games (in his case from Weeks 6-14) as one would count on from a receiver prepared for that second-half breakout, regardless of enjoying a smaller share of snaps attributable to his harm.

Here is a listing evaluating Bateman’s catches, yards, touchdowns, and share of snaps performed in the primary eight video games of his profession to these of a lot of different notable receivers who just lately got here into the league.

  • Rashod Bateman: 32/404/0/59%
  • DeVonta Smith: 33/421/1/88%
  • D.Okay. Metcalf: 23/402/4/77%
  • Jaylen Waddle: 48/413/3/83%
  • A.J. Brown: 22/348/3/53%
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 27/250/0/66%

What Bateman was doing in these video games was no totally different than most high-profile rookie receivers, however he was placing up these numbers whereas enjoying fewer snaps. But when Bateman was prepared for a larger snap rely, Lamar Jackson was misplaced for the season.

Over the final 4 video games of the yr, Bateman’s snap share elevated all the way to 86%, however he not had the quarterback with whom these snaps had been meant to be performed.

Tyler Huntley spent a lot of his time at quarterback force-feeding Mark Andrews like he was a toddler refusing to eat his carrots, which means Bateman’s goal share dropped from 13% over his first eight video games to only 9% during the last 4, even whereas enjoying extra snaps.

When wanting on the fundamental numbers, it’s clear that Bateman was on the proper path as a rookie, however accidents and unhealthy timing meant there was by no means an opportunity for there to be a payoff throughout 2021.

Rashod Bateman’s superior numbers

While fundamental stats present Bateman’s unrealized potential, the superior metrics level to a rookie season that was extra worthwhile than the uncooked numbers would point out.

Football Outsiders has a metric known as DYAR, which appears to be like not on the uncooked yardage complete of a participant, however the worth of these yards. In different phrases, a five-yard catch on Third-and-2 is extra worthwhile than an inexpensive eight yards on Third-and-12.

DYAR takes into consideration the worth offered by a participant and appears at what number of yards they generated over a replacement-level participant, earlier than adjusting for the standard of opponent. The simplest way to consider this stat is because the yardage equal to WAR in baseball, with changes for energy of schedule.

In receiver worth, DYAR is extra helpful than Football Outsiders’ better-known DVOA metric, which follows the identical ideas of participant worth however is a per-play stat.

Bateman truly charges higher in DVOA than gamers like A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, and D.Okay. Metcalf, however it will not be truthful to match Bateman to these guys as a result of DYAR accounts for the problem of maintaining these paces for longer intervals of time.

Even with the disadvantages of being simply 68th in the NFL in routes run attributable to enjoying solely 12 video games and fewer snaps, Bateman nonetheless managed to wind up 46th in DYAR.

While nothing earth-shattering, that quantity continues to be extraordinarily spectacular given the context of Bateman’s season, and nonetheless places him forward of gamers like Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore, and sure, Marquise Brown (who truly wound up detrimental in each DVOA and DYAR).

The purpose for Bateman’s optimistic superior metrics is fairly easy — he was actually worthwhile when he performed. Perhaps the best worth a receiver can present is in being a constant chain mover and Bateman was simply that with a outstanding 29 of his 46 catches going for first downs.

What’s extra, Bateman was extremely environment friendly, solely dropping the ball twice all yr whereas ending twenty second in catch fee and fifth in contested catch fee according to PlayerProfiler.

No matter the place you look, the numbers paint a narrative of a rookie season for Rashod Bateman that was not solely productive, however indicative of future success. And whereas I’m not a movie skilled, I can say from having watched each snap of his that the man can play soccer.

With the latest departure of Hollywood Brown and the return of Lamar Jackson, Bateman needs to be the Ravens’ primary receiver subsequent yr, making him a major candidate for a 2022 breakout.

Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Back to top button